Remarks by the Chargé d’Affaires
to the Ethio-American Business Community Association
Thursday, January 26, 2005

Mapping Africa in 2020 -- The Challenge Ahead

I am delighted that you have invited me to speak with you today.  I am particularly pleased to be here with Ato Tesfaye Birru of the Ethiopian Telecommunications sector, because technology may be the single most important factor in determining whether Ethiopia – like other developing countries – moves into a prosperous 21st century.  Let me make the case for adopting policies that nurture technology and investment in Ethiopia’s future.

The National Intelligence Council’s 2020 project, “Mapping the Global Future” – the pre-eminent study on predicting the future, concludes that:  “The very magnitude and speed of change resulting from a globalizing world will be a defining feature of the world out to 2020.”

The overarching challenge will be the impact of globalization – our growing interconnectedness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services and people throughout the world.  This overarching "mega-trend" is a force so ubiquitous that it will substantially shape all the other major trends in the world of 2020.  Although the world economy will continue to grow impressively – it may be 80 percent larger in 2020 than in 2000, the disparities between the  “haves” and “have nots” will widen.  This – alas – is especially true for sub-Saharan Africa.  Poverty, unemployment, disease, poor educational levels, instability and problems of governance  are road blocks that keep Ethiopia and most of sub-Saharan Africa off the access road that leads to the superhighway of sustained development. 

But countries and groups can find ways to go over – go around – or go through these barriers.  Don't tune out – these barriers can be addressed as much by you as by your government.  Let me cite the experts.  The “Mapping the Global Future” study concludes that:  “the greatest benefits of globalization will accrue to countries and groups that can access and adopt new technologies.  Indeed, a nation's level of technological achievement generally will be defined in terms of its investment in integrating and applying the new, globally available technologies.”

Countries that fail to take advantage of these technologies will generally find themselves among those countries that are in the rut on the side of the highway to Successful globalization.  These “have nots” will only become “haves” – will only push the roadblocks aside – when they pursue policies that support the application of new technologies – such as good governance, universal education, and market reform.  The global 2020 study tells us that  Ethiopia – and other developing countries – can leapfrog intermediate stages that the U.S. and Europe had to traverse – if they pursue such policies.

“China and India are well positioned to become technology leaders, and even the poorest countries will be able to leverage prolific, cheap technologies to fuel -- although at a slower rate -- their own development.”

What an incredible incentive for you and for Africa to adopt policies that attract technology through good governance, universal education, and market reform!  Make no mistake:  with the right conditions on the ground,  investment will flow to Africa. According to the World Bank, the private sector invested $230 billion in telecommunications infrastructure in the developing world between 1993 and 2003.  Africa and Ethiopia must gain a greater share of this investment.  To do so your nation and the region must face the enormous challenges of the 21st century:

   • Religious extremism and identity politics:  political Islam and ethnic tensions rally disaffected individuals and groups, generating conflict and separatist tendencies;
   • The youth bulge:  if young men and women have no future, then their country has no future.
   • Organized crime:  traffic in women and illegal migration degrades and corrupts Africa’s human potential.
   • The threat of pandemics and environmental disasters, such as the HIV-AIDS crisis and environmental disasters such as the drought in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.
   • Regional instability:  fostered by  poverty, disease, and weak commitment to peace processes.

And these are only a few of the economic, cultural, and political convulsions that Ethiopia and the developing world will face as they compete to leapfrog the barriers to sustained development.  But there is hope, for Africa and for Ethiopia.  I have been impressed with your focus and organization, and with your country's commitment to universal education, improved health care, and broadened democracy.  These successes, combined with policy reforms, could leapfrog Ethiopia over the roadblocks and onto the highway that leads to prosperity, peace, and durable democracy.  According to “Mapping the Global Future,” the states that will benefit from the growing world economy are those which:

   • First of all, bring an end to conflict, improve governance, rein in corruption, and establish the rule of law.  These actions  allow for the expansion of foreign investment.  If this investment is used to help economies grow – providing avenues to wealth other than through the power of the state – the prospect of better lives will help governments mitigate the myriad of challenges posed by globalization.

   • Second, expand the development of existing and new sources of wealth through economic reform and good governance – that of course means attracting new technologies, creating jobs and expanding opportunities.  Ethiopia has the  ability to feed itself and to become a major exporter of agricultural and animal products.

   • Third, quicken democratic reform in order to more effectively  deal with the challenges  posed by criminal networks, terrorism, and  internal dissent.

   • Fourth, take greater initiative in negotiating new aid and trade relationships.  Move forward on entering the World Trade Organization and making use of trade and investment advantages under the African Growth and Opportunity Act.  Use the new partnership for Africa’s Development – NEPAD –to your maximum advantage.

   • Fifth, leadership, the ultimate wild card, makes a huge positive difference.  Good leadership at all levels – in government, in the opposition,  in civil society, in business and commerce – promotes democracy, development, and stability that  will nurture  investment in Africa and in Ethiopia..

These are the challenges.  Ethiopia must be among the “haves.”  Your long and illustrious history, your pride, and your commitment to lead your nation do not permit you to fail.