FEWS NET data on famine in Somalia

1) Evidence indicates that famine currently exists in Bakool agropastoral zone and Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia. Assuming current levels of response, famine will occur in the coming 1-2 months throughout southern Somalia.

2) The crude death rate has surpassed 2/10,000/day in two areas (Bakool agropastoral, and all of Lower Shabelle) and is elevated across the south. The under 5 death rate has surpassed 4/10,000/day in all areas of the south where data is available, peaking at 20/10,000/day in Riverine areas of Lower Shabelle.

3) The prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) exceeds 38 percent in 9 of the 11 areas where recent survey data is available.  Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) exceeds 14 percent in these areas. Emergency thresholds are 15 percent for GAM and 2-4 percent for SAM.

4) 3.3 million people need lifesaving assistance (Phase 4 or 5), of which 2.8 million are in southern Somalia.

5) This crisis likely represents the most serious food insecurity situation in the world since Somalia’s 1991-92 famine, in terms of both scale and severity. Thousands of deaths have already occurred. Current humanitarian response is inadequate to meet emergency needs.

6) A multi-sectoral response is critical to prevent deaths and total livelihood and social collapse. A massive health and nutrition response, and interventions to improve food access, are the most urgent needs.

7) Tens of thousands of lives can be saved, but the window of opportunity to do so is extremely limited. Assistance needs will remain extremely high through at least December 2011.